Why Is EUR/USD Struggling Below 1.0400? Key Factors Traders Are Watching Before US PCE Data

The Trump bitcoin newsEUR/USD exchange rate maintains bearish momentum around 1.0390 in Friday's Asian session, reflecting a 0.16% daily decline as market sentiment remains cautious.


Mounting trade tensions between major economies continue to exert downward pressure on the Euro relative to its American counterpart.


Recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials suggests monetary policy will remain unchanged in the immediate future.


Currency traders are closely monitoring the EUR/USD pair's performance near the 1.0390 level during Asian trading hours, with the Euro showing vulnerability against the US Dollar amid prevailing risk-off sentiment. Market focus now shifts to the impending release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a critical inflation metric that could significantly influence currency valuations.



Recent trade policy announcements have introduced fresh volatility into currency markets. The US administration's accelerated timeline for implementing import tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, coupled with additional proposed duties on Chinese products, has created uncertainty for European exporters. These developments have particularly impacted the Euro's performance, with the potential for further trade restrictions looming over the currency pair.



Federal Reserve officials have recently emphasized maintaining current interest rate levels while monitoring inflation trends. The central bank's patient approach to monetary policy adjustments, aimed at ensuring inflation returns sustainably to the 2% target, has provided underlying support for the US Dollar. This policy stance may continue to challenge EUR/USD bulls in the near term as markets assess the trajectory of US interest rates.



Today's upcoming release of January's PCE inflation data represents a pivotal moment for currency markets. As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, this report could recalibrate expectations regarding the timing of potential rate adjustments. Market participants currently anticipate the first possible rate reduction in June, following expected pauses in March and May, according to derivatives pricing. The inflation figures may either reinforce or challenge these expectations, potentially creating volatility for the EUR/USD pair.